Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.