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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.